Archive by tag: cottonReturn

WASDE Predicts Declining Exports; Insiders Disagree

Not since Van Lingel Mungo threw his last pitch for the Brooklyn Dodgers had the cotton market seen a curve as sharp as that thrown by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), USDA in the February WASDE report.  As cotton sales and shipments zoomed higher USDA lowered its already industry lagging export estimate from 14.8 to 14.5 million bales.  For their reputation I hope they are correct and I am wrong.  For the U.S. cotton grower, I do hope they are incorrect. I am already very ...
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World Demand Keeps Cotton in the 72-76 cts Range

With apologies to Mr. Rogers, It’s a wonderful day in the neighborhood and the cotton market has been mine.  What a roll.  Despite the bearish interpretation of the past two WASDE reports, price action on ICE has clearly demonstrated that price decisions should be focused on the declining level of world stocks and the ever increasing world demand.  Yet, it is difficult not to focus on “today’s” fundamentals suggesting on the big U.S. carryover.   ...
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Cotton prices inch up to 70.5-71 cts level

The long awaited rally above 70 cents appeared to mature this week as the March contract has gained five cents just since November.  I am reminded of my friend that sold his cotton in November and then commented that the market would now go up.  It did and prices have continued to move higher.  Most growers are thankful for him finally pulling the pricing trigger.  This was a significant week as the market continued to build on its price consolidation phase, cleansed itself o...
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Cotton Prices Move up on Tightening Stocks

Driven by tightening world stocks and led by an ever increasing world consumption, cotton prices continue to move higher.  The nearby March contract settled the week 73.28 with the 2018 July at 74.05.  Export demand continues to drive the market as US growths are the most price competitive in the world.  U.S. merchants and cooperatives continue their very aggressive basis offers to mills as mills add to their near record pace of on-call sales.  The backdrop behind the expandi...
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Decline in World Stocks Supports Cotton Prices

While the U.S. crop was judged higher, as was U.S. carryover, the more important decline in world stocks led the market higher. Thus, as expected, the long held five cent trading range 65-70 (+/-) cents will continue, most likely into the December supply demand report on December 12, 2017. Further, there is presently little reason to expect the very tight 67-70 cent range to be broken, other than such a narrow range is typically short lived.
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Cotton Prices Supported by Strong Global Demand

The big BEAR crop in the U.S. and around the world just cannot push New York lower.  The trading range continues, but most of the activity is occurring in the upper end of the range, 67-70 cents.  Nevertheless, the 65 -70 cent +/- range has held forth for months.  The market has endured three hurricanes, an early freeze, a basket full of media reports of ending doom, and comments of weak economies around the world.  Yet, world cotton consumption just keeps growing and carryov...
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Cotton Prices Hold at 69 cts

Cotton prices kept their grip on 69 cents, basis December during the week, but short term signals and long term fundamentals continue to favor the market testing its 65 cent price support.  While the market does have a few bullish factors on its side, the realization of a 119-121 million bale crop is expected to keep the bull fighting for every point it can muster.  The October contract moved to first notice today without any fanfare.  The potential for a price squeeze held the on...
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Hurricane Fails to Drive Up Cotton Prices

This is a tough one.  While losing some 700 points from the hurricane driven high, December futures are still hovering near 69 cents and attempting to dig in its heels.  Its efforts will prove fruitless I predict.   The real work will have to the done once the market tests its long term price support at 65 cents.  Further down is the excellent support at 62 cents.  How dare I speak of prices in the low 60’s?  Okay, let talk about the high 50’s then....
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China’s Cotton Subsidy

In October Beijing approved the 2016 Xinjiang Cotton Growing Subsidy Plan Reform Scheme  (2016年新疆维吾尔自治区棉花目标价格改革试点工作实施方案 ). For the current crop year, the target cotton price is ¥ 18,600 (US$2,689), the same as the previous year. However, this year the Xinjiang government will establish a cotton grower dishonest list (棉花生产者补贴失信名单制度). Growers who defraud the cotton subsidy will be added to the list and won’t receive the cotton-growing subsidy the next crop year.
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Outlook 2017: Cotton Balances Supply and Demand

Last season (2015/2016) total world cotton stock declined by 3 million tons. In the beginning of the current season (2016/2017), which started August 1, 2016, the opening stock of world cotton was around 19 million tons, about 80 percent of the world’s total annual mill use. Most of the world’s cotton stock (about 11 million tons) is held by the Chinese government.Worldwide production this season was 22.4 million tons, 1 million tons more than last season, according to estimates by t...
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